Solar PV in Africa: Conflicting data confuse the messaging
- Terje Osmundsen
- Feb 17
- 4 min read
As Founder and CEO of Empower Energy, that develops, finances and manages solar energy in Africa, I am extremely happy to see the growth and optimism now finally coming to the market.
But when three new flagship studies widely quoted in the media report widely conflicting data, it becomes difficult for the industry and stakeholders to align on a coherent analysis and messaging:
Is solar energy in Africa now expanding so fast by itself that the cost-of-capital and regulatory barriers are no longer an issue?
Conflicting Installation Data
Does the continent account for less than 0.7% of global installed solar capacity, or is the real figure closer to 2.4%? Did Africa install 4.5 GW of solar PV in 2025, as reported by the Global Solar Council (GSC) Global Solar Council (GSC) in the report Africa Market for Solar PV 2025 or 16.1 GW, as suggested by the AFSIA (Africa Solar Industry Association) in its Solar Energy Outlook 2025
To better understand the discrepancies, these are the PV installation numbers reported by the two industry associations.
AFSIA explains that its traditional “bottom-up” methodology is based on a database of more than 42,000 identified projects in development, construction, and operation across Africa. Using this approach, AFSIA reports 2.4 GW of solar PV installed in 2025, bringing total accumulated installed capacity to 16.1 GW - less than 0.7% of the global total.
However, AFSIA now argues that new data “fundamentally change the picture of solar in Africa.” This refers to a 2025 report from Ember analyzing Chinese solar panel exports to Africa. According to Ember , Africa imported approximately 9 GW in 2023, 12 GW in 2024, and 16 GW in 2025.
Based on these import figures, AFSIA suggests that solar deployment in Africa may be 2.75 times higher than previously reported - including in its own earlier assessments
Why Import Data Cannot Equal Installed Capacity
I agree that rapid increase in the import of panels as reported by Ember is important to understand the dynamics of the market. However, I believe it is problematic to equate imports directly with operational solar capacity for several reasons:
A portion of imported panels may remain in warehouses and not yet be installed. Imports in one year may not translate into installations until later years.
Many panels may serve off-grid households or small businesses and may not qualify as “operating projects.”
Import statistics include lower-quality modules that may have shorter lifespans, particularly without proper maintenance.
To reduce confusion, I recommend AFSIA to report both datasets clearly and separately:
1. Identified and verified solar PV projects (bottom-up data)
2. Total African solar PV imports
Keeping these categories distinct would improve transparency and comparability.
The Global Solar Council’s Figures
A third set of numbers comes from the Global Solar Council’s Africa Market for Solar PV 2025, which reports 4.5 GW installed in 2025 - a 54% increase year-on-year, and almost the double of “identified” solar projects reported by AFSIA. But when compared to the import-adjusted installation data reported by AFSIA, GSCs estimates the size of market to be about one-quarter of the market size implied by AFSIA’s import-adjusted estimates.
However, what is unclear in the GSC report is the underlying data source. For example, the report states that Nigeria’s mini-grid and commercial & industrial (C&I) solar market exceeded 800 MW in 2025 — more than doubling from 2024 and 60% larger than Egypt’s total PV market.
Based on my knowledge about Nigeria, these figures appear very high. Fortunately, the numbers are easy to verify. In Nigeria, all mini-grids must register with the regulator (NERC), and systems above 100 kWp require a permit. Cross-checking against NERC data would clarify the actual installed capacity, and reduce uncertainty.
Is Battery Storage Already That Cheap?
AFSIA is right to highlight falling battery costs as a potential game-changer for Africa’s solar markets, see also my article “Cheaper Panels Plus Batteries – a Game-Changer for Africa’s Solar Markets” published by AFSIA 2 years ago.
However, one must be careful when calculating the real cost of electricity from solar and battery. AFSIA refers to report from in Rajasthan, a sunny region of India, where reportedly someone has calculated that 24-hour electricity can be delivered at an average price $0.076/kWh.
“Many countries in Africa enjoy similar solar irradiation” says AFSIA, presenting a table showing how that the cost of PV + BESS now “has moved down to somewhere between $0.07 and $0.20 “per kWh in Africa.
Delivering a few hours of storage within this price range is indeed possible, and a major motivation for the growth in the battery storage market we now see across Africa.But there is a huge difference in the cost of 2-3 hours of storage and “around-the-clock solar energy for a total cost of only $76/MWh” that AFSIA suggests may soon possible, with reference to the claim from Rajasthan.
Consider a simplified example: An industrial off-taker with an average 1 MW load. To ensure supply when the sun is not shining, roughly 20 MWh of battery storage would be required. At approximately $300,000 per MWh, the battery investment alone would total around $6 million. In addition, the solar PV plant would need to be significantly expanded to charge the batteries during the day, adding another $2–3 million in capital costs
Under these assumptions, the real cost of electricity for 24-hour solar plus BESS would likely fall in the range of $0.35–0.40/kWh, very far from $0.076/kWh.
Conclusion: The Need for Methodological Clarity
Africa’s solar market is undoubtedly in rapid expansion, and I am thankful to AFSIA, GSC and Ember for the work they are doing to document the market growth.But the conflicting data highlighted here illustrate how different methodologies — project databases, import statistics, and market surveys — can produce dramatically different results.
To maintain credibility and avoid confusion, industry associations and analysts should seek to align and improve the collection of market data. Without more clarity, it remains difficult for suppliers, investors and stakeholders to address the opportunities, challenging and hurdles affecting the growth of Africa’s solar market.
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